Previewing Tennessee and Kentucky's Sweet Sixteen matchup

Photo courtesy of Andrew Ferguson/Tennessee Athletics 

By Zach Carey

The third time’s the charm, right? 

Following two regular season losses to the Kentucky Wildcats, the Tennessee Volunteers can avenge those defeats and stick a crushing blow to their bitter rivals in one go when the two squads tip off at 7:39 PM ET on TBS. 

The Wildcats won the two teams’ previous matchups in 2025 because of how well they shot the ball, knocking down 24-of-48 (50%) shots from deep while the Vols mightily struggled behind the arc, hitting just 22.2% of their 63 triples. Kentucky is absolutely a good shooting team as Mark Pope’s squad has shot 37.4% from deep this season, good for 24th nationally. Unsurprisingly, Kentucky’s losses have correlated with worse perimeter shooting as the team has shot 32.7% from deep in its 11 defeats. 

Kentucky runs a deep rotation and plays at a high-octane pace with five players scoring in double figures. Otega Oweh is the leading scorer, averaging 16.3 points per game as a 6-foot-4 slasher who can both hit from deep and put the ball on the floor to attack the rim. Point guard Lamont Butler is the straw that stirs the drink. 6-foot-7 wing Koby Brea stretches the floor as a 43.8% shooter from deep on six threes per game. 

In the frontcourt, Andrew Carr is a stretch four who can also win one-versus-one in the post. Then, 6-foot-10, 262-pound center Amari Williams owns the paint on either end of the floor as a finisher, rebounder, and shot blocker.

Jaxson Robinson missed the two team’s last meeting, and he’s still out for the Wildcats as his wrist injury ended his season prematurely. That has made Kentucky less dynamic offensively and has forced Oweh and Butler to take more the onus on the ball. 

Tennessee’s matchups on Kentucky are relatively straightforward, at least amongst the starters. Zakai Zeigler will take Butler, Jahmai Mashack will guard Oweh, Lanier will match up with Brea, Igor Milicic is responsible for Carr, and Felix Okpara’s responsibility should be Williams. That hardly means that the Vols will be able to slow Kentucky down. But Tennessee should have faith in Zeigler and Mashack to somewhat limit Butler and Oweh while hoping Okpara, Milicic, and Cade Philips can step up in the interior. 

On the other side of the ball, Kentucky is beatable. While the Wildcats’ offense is 10th nationally in efficiency, its defense is 46th which is the second worst of teams remaining in the NCAA Tournament. Kentucky isn’t disruptive and struggles to turn opponents over. While the Wildcats are good on the defensive boards largely because of William’ presence, pulling him onto the perimeter can open up driving lanes for Zeigler, Lanier, and Jordan Gainey to attack. Oddly enough, Kentucky allows opponents to shoot 53.6% from two-point range, the second worst mark in the SEC and the 287th best mark nationally. Tennessee’s strength driving and kicking and working in the midrange could pay off in this game. 

Assuming Kentucky cools off from three – the Wildcats were right around 38% through the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament – Tennessee should be the favorite on Friday night. Letting the Vols’ elite perimeter defenders cook, battening down the hatches in the paint, and trusting Tennessee’s veteran guards to produce on the other ends are keys for Rick Barnes’ squad. 

Accomplish those three tasks and the Volunteers could be on their way to the program’s third and a second consecutive Elite Eight. 

I’m picking Tennessee, 69-66.