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NCAA Tournament Upsets to Watch in Each Region

NCAA Tournament Upsets to Watch in Each Region

By Sam Kayser

Every year, the NCAA Tournament delivers stunning upsets that leave fans in awe and brackets in ruins. The unpredictability of March Madness is what makes it so captivating, as underdog teams rise to the occasion and knock off higher-seeded opponents. With veteran mid-major squads, battle-tested play-in teams, and high-powered offenses lurking in the lower seeds, the 2025 tournament is primed for more shocking results. Here are four potential upsets that could shake up this year’s Big Dance:

South Region

12-seed UC San Diego vs. 5-seed Michigan

UC San Diego has a legitimate shot at upsetting Michigan in the NCAA Tournament due to their well-rounded roster, versatility, and ability to capitalize on Michigan's weaknesses. The Tritons have developed a balanced offensive strategy that thrives on unselfish ball movement and hitting high-percentage shots, particularly from beyond the arc. UC San Diego's ability to shoot the three-ball at a high clip could create spacing issues for Michigan's defense, forcing them to defend the perimeter while also trying to protect the paint. Additionally, the Tritons' defense is flexible, with the ability to adapt to different styles of play and challenge Michigan’s offense at every turn.

The Tritons excel in forcing turnovers, finishing the regular season as the #6 team in the country in turnovers forced per game, while Michigan struggles to take care of the ball, finishing the season 340th in overall turnovers per game. UCSD will almost certainly disrupt the Wolverines offensive flow which should generate some fast-break opportunities and easy buckets on the other end. The underdog mentality that UC San Diego will bring into this matchup can’t be overlooked either. March Madness is all about the unexpected, and UCSD’s players will likely feel a sense of freedom in a game where expectations are somewhat low, giving them an edge in what will certainly be a high-pressure environment.

West Region

11-seed Drake vs. 6-seed Missouri

It’d be hard to find a Division I head coach who has had a better overall season than Drake’s first-year head coach, Ben McCollum. McCollum orchestrated what’s been a dream season for the Bulldogs, leading them to a 30-3 overall record and securing both the Missouri Valley Conference regular-season and tournament championships. McCollum was beyond successful at the Division II level, but to see what he’s done in his first season coaching D1, has certainly raised some eyebrows across college basketball.

Drake excels at controlling the tempo, playing a disciplined, well-structured game on both ends of the floor. Their defense, which can stifle opponents by forcing turnovers and limiting easy shots, will be key in slowing down Missouri's high-powered, balanced offense. On the offensive side for the Bulldogs, Drake is a well-coached unit that thrives on ball movement and shot selection, making them extraordinarily difficult to defend. If they can execute their game plan, limit live-ball turnovers, and control the pace, Drake has the potential to neutralize Missouri’s athleticism and secure an upset in the first round. With McCollum’s coaching acumen and a team that knows how to play together, Drake is more than capable of pulling off the first round win over Mizzou.

East Region 

11-seed VCU vs. 6-seed BYU

Of my four upset picks here, this one has to be the least upset worthy, as VCU currently sits as only a 2.5 point underdog in Vegas. But still, an 11-seed over a 6-seed is always an upset when it comes to the NCAA Tournament! The Rams had a spectacular year in 2024-25, culminating in a thrilling 68-63 victory over George Mason in the A-10 Championship Game, earning them an automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament.

VCU, as a team, can really get it done on both ends of the floor. The Rams boast a quality offense, which sits around #40 in the country per KenPom, but what’s really stood out this season has been their defense. VCU allows their opponents to shoot just 38.7% from the floor, which is 8th best in the country, and will be crucial to stopping BYU’s three-point shooting machine. BYU, while incredibly talented offensively, can be vulnerable to pressure defense, and if VCU can disrupt their offensive rhythm, they will have a significant advantage when the clock hits 0:00. If VCU can continue to play as they have recently, focusing on defense, executing their offense, and controlling the tempo, they will have a solid chance of knocking off BYU and advancing to the Round of 32.

Midwest Region 

13-seed High Point vs. 4-seed Purdue

High Point has all the ingredients for a first-round NCAA Tournament upset: a high-powered offense, a confident coach in Alan Huss, and a chip on their shoulder. The Panthers have been one of the most efficient teams in the country this season, a key factor in knocking off higher seeds in March. Their controlled offensive attack and ability to stretch the floor could give a bigger, slower opponent problems. This will be High Point’s first ever NCAA Tournament game in program history, so I expect the Panthers to come out firing with nothing to lose.

Purdue has been fairly dominant this season with the two-headed monster of Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn leading the way all year. But with their past NCAA Tournament struggles, it certainly raises some legitimate concerns about whether an early exit may be coming again. Purdue will come into the tournament having lost 6 of their last 9 games and have struggled to defend the two-point shot the last month plus. Since February 1st, Purdue is allowing teams to shoot a whopping 63% from the field, while High Point is Top-10 in the country in overall field goal percentage. In a one-game scenario, all it takes is a cold shooting night or an opponent playing fearless basketball to send Purdue home early once again.

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