Evaluating Tennessee basketball's path to Final Four

Photo courtesy of Tennessee Athletics

By Zach Carey

While the Tennessee Volunteers’ missed out on an SEC title on Sunday against the Florida Gators, the big prize is still very much to play for. Rick Barnes’ squad is, as expected, a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament and looking to make its first ever Final Four. 

Here are the teams the Vols will have to beat to do it:

No. 15 Wofford (Round of 64 opponent)

If there’s one team among the No. 16 and No. 15 seeds most primed for an upset, it may be Wofford. The Terriers are not a particularly imposing matchup, but the potential that their system provides against a team like Tennessee is notable. 

Wofford has the 23rd highest three-point attempt rate in the country. While the Terriers’ 34.5% shooting clip from deep is only 138th nationwide, they have a few players who can heat up behind the arc. 

Given that the Volunteers’ defensive scheme is rooted in forcing teams to hit contested outside shots, there is always the chance that an opponent shoots themselves hot. Wofford has the guys to do that. Of course, Tennessee is also incredibly disruptive on the perimeter and has only allowed opponents to shoot 27.8% from three this season – the lowest in the nation. 

The Vols should win. Wofford’s defense is not good, sitting 231st in defensive efficiency per KenPom. But, if the Terriers get hot from deep, this could be more competitive than Tennessee fans want. 

No. 7 UCLA or No. 10 Utah State (Potential Round of 32 opponents)

Should Tennessee beat Wofford on Thursday, the Volunteers will face the winner of No. 7 seed UCLA versus No. 10 seed Utah State. 

UCLA finished fifth in the Big Ten this season with a 22-10 overall record. The Bruins’ lost five of six games during a stretch from late December through mid-January, but Mick Cronin’s group rallied down the stretch and finished 11-3 in their last 14 regular season contests before falling to Wisconsin in the conference tournament. UCLA has four truly quality wins having beaten Michigan State, Oregon, Arizona, and Gonzaga. 

While UCLA can compete with some of the top teams in the country, the team is inconsistent. Two weeks after beating the Spartans, the Bruins lost to Minnesota – who recently fired head coach Ben Johnson – at home. 

The Bruins’ strength is on the defensive side of the ball where they’re one of the most disruptive groups. Their 22.8% defensive turnover rate is seventh nationally. Like Tennessee, they force teams to hit outside shots. 

Starting center Tyler Bilodeau, power forward Eric Dailey, and guard Sebastian Mack are UCLA’s leading scorers. Tennessee’s individual defenders will be tested in the frontcourt should the teams match up in the round of 32. Just about every player on the Bruins’ roster is a threat to score, and they moved the ball well with 60.5% of their baskets being assisted. 

Utah State would, on paper, be a better matchup for Tennessee. The Aggies are a good offensive team who can slash to the hoop and hit from three. But they’re exploitable defensively with only the 149th best defense in the country. Utah State is particularly gettable in the paint and around the basket – that’s where the Vols should hope to attack them if the two squads meet on Saturday.

No. 3 Kentucky or No. 6 Illinois or No. 11 Texas/Xavier or No. 14 Troy (Potential Sweet Sixteen opponents)

The headliner potential opponent for Tennessee in the Sweet Sixteen is, obviously, Kentucky. That’s a fascinating matchup for the Vols as the Wildcats are, alongside Ole Miss, the only SEC team Tennessee didn’t beat this season with Kentucky beating Rick Barnes and company in both of their matchups in the regular season. 

The Wildcats have been a victim of how absurdly good the SEC is this year, going 22-11 in the regular season and 10-8 in conference play before being blown out by Alabama by 29 points in the SEC Tournament. Yet Kentucky is unquestionably battle tested and capable of beating any team in the country with wins against Duke, Florida, and, of course Tennessee.

As Tennessee fans are well aware, the Wildcats’ high-octane offense is their calling card with their swath of guards able to make shots from the perimeter. In fact, Kentucky shot an insane 24-for-48 (50%) from three in its two wins over the Volunteers this season. The Wildcats are a 37.4% three-point shooting team on the season, so presumably they’d revert to the mean in a third matchup. Still, how dominant they were in the teams’ earlier meetings is imposing.

Kentucky also runs a deep rotation with the 24th most bench minutes in the country. Mark Pope’s group has six players who average more than 10 points per game with a good balance of scoring from the perimeter and the interior. 

Illinois is the next most likely opponent for Tennessee if the Vols make it to the second weekend of the tournament. Stylistically, the Fighting Illini are one of the most interesting teams in the tournament. They can’t shoot the ball, hitting just 31.1% of their threes as a team with zero players hitting over 35%. Yet the size they have on the wings and down low makes up for it. 

Texas and Xavier tip off on Wednesday night for the opportunity to play Illinois. Xavier is my pick purely because they can shoot the cover off the ball. Troy is a quirky mid-major that benefits off the lack of tangible size in the Sun Belt conference. I don’t think they have the playmakers to stage an upset of Kentucky.

No. 1 Houston or No. 4 Purdue or No. 5 Clemson or No. 8 Gonzaga or No. 9 Georgia (Potential Elite Eight opponents)

For times’ sake, I’m holding off on previewing the double digit seeds on the other side of the Midwest region. Should any of them – No. 12 McNeese, No. 13 High Point, and No, 16 SIUE – make the Sweet Sixteen, we’ll preview their potential matchup with the Volunteers next week. 

No. 1 seed Houston is the team to beat in the Midwest. Kelvin Sampson’s program is a perennial No. 1 seed, and the Cougars are back among the best teams in college basketball in their second season in the Big-12. After Houston made its first Final Four since 1984 in 2021, the program is hungry to take the final few steps in March. 

Like Tennessee, Houston is a team that is defense-first, boasting the nation’s second best defensive efficiency. That plus their status as an elite-shooting group with an incredible backcourt makes the Cougars built for March. Houston’s three starting guards are all shooting over 42% from three on 16.1 combined attempts per game. LJ Cryer (42.2% on 6.9 attempts) in particular is the real deal, being named a third-team All-American (alongside Zakai Zeigler) by the Associated Press. 

Houston hasn’t lost since February 1. The Big-12 might not be the SEC, but it has seven NCAA Tournament teams. The Cougars have been rolling and look to be peaking at the right time. There are some other quality teams on that side of the bracket that could give them some trouble. But, realistically, if Tennessee wants to make the Final Four, the Vols are going to have to beat Houston. 

Gonzaga may be the squad most likely to knock off their former fellow mid-major titan. Mark Few’s group suffered more defeats than normal in non-conference and conference competition this season, hence the No. 8 seed. But the analytics still love the Bulldogs thanks to their fast-paced offense that dominates the paint, largely because of WCC Tournament MVP Graham Ike’s interior presence. 

Georgia has some dogs (badum-tss), but the team’s turnover woes look set to cost them before they can materialize in March. Clemson has only lost twice since early January and beat Duke back on February 8. But do the Tigers have the star power to make a run to the Elite Eight? I don’t think so. Purdue is an elite offensive team with the potential to heat up from deep at the drop of a hat. But the Boilermakers struggle mightily to defend the paint and rebound opponents’ misses. 

The Midwest region is no joke. Houston and Kentucky are, logically, the biggest threats to Tennessee making a run all the way to San Antonio. But there are a couple other quality squads who could upset expectations. Stay tuned to Locker Room Access for additional coverage and analysis as we approach the best few weeks of college basketball.