Previewing Tennessee basketball versus Wofford in NCAA Tournament first round

Photo courtesy of Andrew Ferguson/Tennessee Athletics

By Zach Carey

The Tennessee Volunteers men’s basketball team will tip off its 27th NCAA Tournament on Thursday at 6:50 PM ET on TNT. The Volunteers will face Wofford, the champions of the Southern Conference.

As I wrote in our preview of the Midwest region, what’s scary about Wofford for Tennessee is the Terriers’ high reliance on the three-point line. While Dwight Perry’s team may only hit 34.5% of its threes, 47.7% of Wofford’s field goal attempts come from behind the arc which is the 23rd highest clip in the country. If a few of the Terriers get going, this could be a more competitive matchup than anticipated.

Junior guard Justin Bailey hits 44.1% of his 3.7 threes per game. Freshman shooting guard Luke Flynn makes 37.6% of his 2.7 attempts per game, while senior point guard Corey Tripp converts on 36.1% of his 5.2 deep balls per contest. 

Stretch forward Jackson Sivills (5.3 three-point attempts per game) and combo guard Dillon Bailey (5.4) are two more high volume shooters. Both sit right around 34% this season and for their careers. Yet they can each get hot, evidenced by Sivills hitting 14-of-23 triples (60.9%) in his last four games en route to Wofford winning the SoCon.

Given that the Volunteers’ defensive scheme is rooted in forcing teams to hit contested outside shots, there is always the chance that an opponent shoots itself hot. Wofford has the guys and the scheme to do that. Of course, Tennessee is also incredibly disruptive on the perimeter and has only allowed opponents to shoot 27.8% from three this season – the lowest in the nation. 

Fortunately for Tennessee, Wofford lacks size throughout its roster. The Terriers’ tallest guard is 6-foot-3. Their tallest player is 6-foot-9 Kyle Filewich. Filewich, the 6-foot-6 Sivills, and the 6-foot-8 Jeremy Lorenz make up Wofford’s frontcourt rotation. Surprisingly, however, the team still rebounds the ball well with the 27th best offensive rebound rate and the 32nd best defensive rebound rate in the country. That’s likely inflated by playing in the typically undersized SoCon, though. 

Tennessee will expect Felix Okpara to own the matchup against Filewich. Yet the veteran Terrier is savvy enough that he could bait the foul-happy Okpara at times. The Volunteers will hope that their athleticism wins out down low. 

The 6-foot-3 Tripp is Wofford’s leading scorer. He’s likely who will garner the Jahmai Mashack matchup. Flynn – who’s 6-foot-1 – likely will be face to face with Zakai Zeigler, while the Bailey brothers will see a combination of Chaz Lanier and Jordan Gainey. Sivills and Igor Milicic will also go head-to-head with the Vols hoping that the four inches Milicic has on Sivills will pay off.

Tennessee should be able to score on Wofford. While the Terriers’ offense is 67th in offensive efficiency nationwide, their defense is 230th, which is fourth worst in the NCAA Tournament. They can be had on the interior. Wofford doesn’t block shots or create turnovers at a good clip and they have foul-happy bigs. Tennessee may not generate a ton of scoring in the low block. But Wofford’s weakness down low means that guards Zeigler, Lanier, and Gainey should have no trouble attacking slashing lanes. Milicic’s threat as a pick and pop option will similarly put Wofford’s bigs in a bind as the Terriers have to account for the best backcourt they’ve played this season. 

Wofford has some weapons that could make this interesting early, but I fully expect Tennessee’s experience, talent, and athleticism to win out in the end. Give me the Vols, 79-61.